Population census could alter K’taka’s political landscape

Bengaluru: The much-awaited population census, which is expected to roll out this year after a pandemic-induced delay, could potentially trigger a seismic shift in Karnataka's political scene since the data would lay the foundation for major electoral reforms, including constituency delimitation and implementation of women's reservation.Karnataka currently sends 28 members to the Lok Sabha and has 224 assembly constituencies, but this could change significantly.Outlining potential scenarios, psephologist Sandeep Shastri said: "Karnataka currently accounts for about 5% of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. If the total seats remain unchanged, the state could lose one or two seats based on population trends. But if the number of Lok Sabha seats increases to 888 — a proposal under consideration — the dynamics would shift substantially."Shastri said that if the number of seats increases, Karnataka would gain 14 seats, bringing its tally to 42. "But this would still represent a smaller share compared to states like Uttar Pradesh, which could see an increase of 55 seats, raising its total to 145," he said.The delimitation process, slated for completion by 2028, is expected to tilt Karnataka's political balance. Urban areas like Bengaluru, with their swelling populations, are poised to gain more constituencies, while rural regions may see mergers or realignments, prompting rural strongholds to adapt to shifting voter demographics and political strategies.Quota for womenCompounding this transformation is the Nari Shakti Vandan Act of 2023, which mandates reserving one-third of seats in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies for women. If everything goes according to the plan, the law will come into effect alongside the delimitation exercise in the next assembly elections in 2028 and the Lok Sabha polls in 2029.Political analyst MN Patil emphasised the challenges ahead. "With more constituencies and gender reservation, parties will have to navigate new boundaries and tweak strategies. Assembly seats may rise to 298, with about 74 reserved for women. The delimitation committee's recommendations have been unanimously endorsed by BJP, Congress, and other major parties," he said.Shastri also warned of potential disparities. "If delimitation is solely population-based, southern states like Karnataka could lose representation. The South may lose at least 20 seats to the North under the current 543-seat structure. It's unlikely any political party would risk such consequences," he said.He suggested a more equitable approach: "Instead of reducing the South's representation, a likely solution would be to freeze each state's proportion of seats while redistributing constituencies within states."Governed by Articles 82 and 170 of the Constitution, delimitation has not been conducted since the 1971 census, largely due to political sensitivities. Now, Karnataka finds itself on the brink of a political reshuffle that could redefine its electoral future.