Blue stunts saffron sweep

Poll Guarantees Help Congress Increase Vote Share, But Fail To Secure Enough Seats
Congress’ much-hyped five poll guarantees have boosted the party’s vote share in Karnataka, but they failed to help it win enough seats. Congress was hoping that its schemes – free bus rides for women, free electricity, free rations, and allowances for women and unemployed youths – for which the state govt earmarked Rs 52,009 crore in the budget, along with the Rs 1 lakh offer to women heads of family in its national manifesto, would influence voters and help it reach the double-digit mark.But the party fell short by one seat.
Despite the focus being on women, the party did not see an uptick in the number of seats it won. The vote-share difference of less than 1% between Congress and BJP spoke volumes.
BJP’s ‘Modi ki guarantee,’ in response to Congress’ guarantees, worked for the saffron party in securing 17 constituencies, though it failed to reach the target of 20-plus seats. BJP crafted a narrative challenging the guarantee schemes, claiming that these welfare initiatives, though appealing, are being funded at the expense of taxpayers, leading to a rise in the cost of daily essentials and hampering development works.
While Congress performed well in north and central Karnataka regions, winning 7 of the 14 seats, it failed to deliver in the Vokkaliga-dominated south where it secured only two of the 14 seats. In 2019, BJP won 12 seats in the south and 14 in the north of the state.
According to senior party functionaries, Congress this time managed to win maximum seats in Kalyana Karnataka (Hyderabad-Karnataka), largely because of the consolidation of Muslim and SC/ST votes. While Mus lim consolidation was on expected lines, the SC/ST consolidation was due to the Congress central campaign theme alleging that the Constitution (reservation) is under serious threat if BJP returned to office.
After former Uttara Kannada BJP MP Anantkumar Hegde said the Constitution could be changed if BJP won a thumping majority in Parliament, Rahul Gandhi and other senior Congress functionaries upped the rhetoric to specifically declare that this was about protecting the “samvidhan’’ (Constitution) and “gareeb” (poor). Though BJP denied Hegde a ticket and kept assuring that the Constitution would remain untouched, it did not help its cause.
In BJP’s stronghold of Kittur-Karnataka (Mumbai-Karnataka), Congress managed to wrest only Chikkodi, and it is being said that this was largely due to a personal feud between the Jarkiholi brothers and women and child development minister Laxmi Hebbalkar.
Party insiders revealed that there was an unwritten rule wherein the Jarkiholi brothers, despite being in different parties, would support BJP in Belagavi and Congress in Chikkodi. This arrangement was made to ensure the victory of PWD minister Satish Jarkiholi’s daughter Priyanka, and defeat Hebbalkar’s son Mrunal, especially considering her proximity to Congress state president and deputy CM DK Shivakumar, who has been actively involved in efforts to gain control over Belagavi.
Another significant factor that worked in favour of Congress was the display of unity. BJP had hoped to exploit the differences between chief minister Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. However, Congress made sure to exhibit enough camaraderie, both publicly and internally. Both leaders took part in joint campaigns across the state.
Following a disappointing performance in last year’s assembly elections, the saffron party was hoping for a resurgence in the state under the new leadership of state BJP president BY Vijayendra, son of former CM BS Yediyurappa, by single-handedly winning over 20 seats. Yediyurappa had fought against all odds to secure the Karnataka BJP chief post for his son. However, the results have turned out to be a mixed bag, thanks to the infighting within the party.
The father-son duo failed to prove their influence over the party in north Karnataka, where the major Lingayat community to which they belong, resides.
Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, who were vying to prove their mettle in south Karnataka, have failed to make a significant impact. However, it was AICC chief Mallikarjuna Kharge who stole the march, ensuring a big victory for the party in Kalyana Karnataka.
Nevertheless, the results proved that the alliance between the BJP and JD(S) proved helpful for both parties to check the Congress dominance in the Vokkaliga-dominated areas of the Old Mysuru region. Though they lost Hassan, political pundits attribute the negative result more to JD(S) candidate Prajwal Revanna than the parties.
The biggest setback has been for Shivakumar who had emerged as the Vok kaliga face wresting influence from the Gowda family in the assembly polls held last year. The community seems to be miffed with the Congress govt over a host of issues in the last 12 months, including the caste census report.
The 2024 poll outcome in the state also clearly indicates that Karnataka has voted differently in national and state-level elections. Since 2004, Karnataka voters have consistently supported the saffron party, even during the Congress-led UPA government’s strong performances in 2004 and 2009.