Turnout is a game changer

Going purely by

voter turnout

numbers for the last five general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins more seats in

Gujarat

when voter turnout is higher.

Barring the exceptional 1999 general election, when the BJP won the majority of seats despite turnout being lower, this trend has generally held true since the 1998 elections.

The Congress and BJP shared the spoils in 2004 and 2009, when turnout was between 45% and 48%. In 2004, the BJP won 14 seats and the Congress 12 when 45.16% of the electorate exercised its franchise. In 2009, when voter turnout was 47.89%, the BJP won 15 seats and the Congress 11.

The equation seems to favour the BJP when a higher turnout is registered. In the 2014 general elections, which saw a record 63.66% turnout, the BJP swept all 26 seats in Gujarat.

Similarly, in the 1998 general election, when 59.31% of the electorate came out to vote, the BJP bagged 19 seats and the Congress seven.

The only exception to this trend came in 1999 general election, where despite turnout being on the lower side at 45.11%, the BJP won 20 seats and the Congress 6. However, the 1999 general election was held under exceptional circumstances — the famous no-confidence motion of April that year, when the Vajpayee government was pulled down by a one-vote margin. Riding a sympathy wave, the BJP won 20 seats in Gujarat in 1999 despite the low turnout.

Political analyst Ghanshyam Shah says these figures clearly reflect the superiority of the BJP’s organisational strength, which is strengthened by the RSS cadre. "The RSS and BJP cadre are more efficient in getting voters to polling booths. And I think they will do it this time too," Shah said.