Mathematical model joins Zika fight

AHMEDABAD: Even as lack of drives for preventive measures or awareness activities in the wake of three Zika virus detections in Ahmedabad exists, three mathematicians from Gujarat University and

LD College of Engineering

have through mathematical models tried to explain various scenarios in case of a Zika virus outbreak.

The paper has been authored by Nita Shah and Bijal Yeolekar from department of mathematics at Gujarat University and Zalak Patel, from

LD College

of engineering. They have explained how such mathematical models can help civic bodies prepare early warning systems for mosquito-borne viruses and create targeted public health interventions to reduce risk of exposure to mosquitoes carrying dengue, Zika and chikungunya.

To understand disease transmission in case of an outbreak the researchers have developed mathematical models for different outbreak simulations — which include vertical transmission of ZIKV to newborns from infected mothers, horizontal ZIKV transmission to human child or adult from infected Aedes aegypti, sexual transmission among human adults and horizontal transmission to mosquitoes from infected child or adult when mosquitoes bite humans. The research paper “Preventions and Controls on Congenital Transmissions of Zika: Mathematical Analysis,” claims that to minimize the total effective cost to control the disease, policy should be designed in a way that during first week of disease outbreaks, 26% preventions takes place on the treatment front and 40% prevention measures be undertaken to stop affected pregnancy. It also suggests that 15% of preventive measures should be targeted at reducing sexual activities amongst human, while the rest of the efforts should be put in anti-vector drive.

The researchers explained how two essential components like ambient temperature — which is essential for mosquito —and blood transfusion can be considered to increase the efficacy of the model.