It's advantage BJP in S Gujarat

VADODARA/SURAT: A clutch of five reserved seats in the tribal pocket of South Gujarat — Vyara, Mahuva, Bardoli, Nizar and Songarh — have ruined all hopes of the Congress for making a comeback in South Gujarat in the assembly elections.
The BJP is clearly at an advantageous position in the 16 seats it already has in Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Valsad, Navsari and Dangs districts.And, adding five more to its kitty will ensure that the saffron flag flies high in south of Gujarat.
In these five seats, the rebel Congress candidates are enjoying a sympathy of sorts for being discarded by their party. All this is bad news for the Congress.
No wonder Pratap Gamit from Vyara, whom Amarsinh Chaudhary reportedly tried to dissuade from contesting, is giving the former GPCC chief''s son Tushar Chaudhary sleepless nights, while Iswar Vahiya from Mahuva has queered the pitch for Congress candidate Chitubhai Gamit.
The new force in South Gujarat, Mohan Delkar''s Bharatiya Navshkati Party (BNP), will be a party to reckon. Like in Nizar, it may well come in the way of the sitting Congress MLA Paresh Vasava romping home just because he has a large base of Vasava votes.
In Surat city, the BJP is set for smooth sailing in three seats, having renominated its sitting MLAs and with the Congress failing to come up with strong candidates. Besides, rebel candidates like Moolji Talati may also eat into the Congress''s share. The fourth seat, Surat West, was countermanded following the death of BJP candidate Hemant Chapatwala on Monday.
In neighbouring Navsari, the BJP may have to fight the anti-incumbency factor, but all its sitting MLAs will scrape through, again aided by unimaginative candidate selection by the Congress. Valsad may give some hiccups to the BJP, thanks again to Delkar''s BNP, especially in Dharmapur, Mota Ponda, Pardi and Umergaon constituencies.
But in the Dangs, which has only one seat, Delkar will haunt the Congress, which will depend heavily on what is known as the "Church votes", which comprise about one-fourth of the total votes.
If polarisation of votes is helping the BJP prospects in Central Gujarat, it is Bharuch in the south that stands to gain most. In Bharuch, the party has fielded a former VHP man known for his brand of fundamentalism, Ramesh Mistry, who may well mop up the strong Hindu community vote of over 80,000 in an electorate of 2.21 lakh. He may leave behind Congress''s Jayesh Patel behind despite a large Muslim population.
His youth — Iswar Patel is just 34 — and the clean image of his father, former MLA Thakore Ghuman Patel, and Congress infighting, may go in favour of the BJP in Ankleswar constituency despite problems in this industrial belt. In Jambusar too, where the BJP candidate Chatrasing Mori won by a margin of about 9,000 in 1998, will sail through again, albeit with a lower margin.
But the BJP does not stand a chance in two seats in Bharuch district — Vagra, where sitting MLA Mohammed Patel''s wife Rashida will fight for the Congress, and in Jhagadia, where Janata Dal MLA Chhotu Vasava''s writ runs large.
If it is Delkar in Surat, it is Chhotu Vasava in Narmada district. For, he has fielded his son Mohan from the tribal-dominated Dediapada. Mohan already has an edge over the sitting MLA, Congress''s Amarsinh Vasava who is seeking re-election this time and is also challenging the BJP''s hope of wresting this seat. The only other seat here, Rajpipla, however, seems to be going the Congress way, given the clean image of its candidate and sitting MLA P D Vasava.