The Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in Gujarat assembly election has hammered the principal opposition Congress deeper into oblivion and crushed the aspirations of the new entrant, the AAP. The Congress languished at just 17 seats, the lowest ever and the reflection of abject surrender. Its fighting performance in 2017 had won it 77 seats.
In Himachal Pradesh, not projecting a CM face worked for Congress as it won despite top leaders like Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi not campaigning this time. The Congress contested the election in the name of former CM late Virbhadra Singh and his emotional connect with people. Congress won 40 of the 68 seats, and voters kept up their ‘riwaaz’ of a five-year switch for every government. The saffron camp was whittled to 25 seats.
Here are the big messages from the elections results- BJP undisputed frontrunner for 2024That Modi-led BJP would enter the race for 2024 with an edge was never in question. The Gujarat landslide reinforces his status as undisputed frontrunner. The advantage may grow even stronger. With the worst of Covid hopefully behind us, India’s growing global heft and economic recovery (boosting govt revenues) will give him a better narrative to project and more money to spend on infra and welfare.
- Congress slide continuesThe miserable performance in Gujarat, where the party had so far held its own in assembly polls, is a sign of leadership failure and organisational enfeeblement, and will dent its credentials asan effective challenger to BJP. The win in HP won’t be enough to redeem the narrative. The need to score a clear win in Karnataka has assumed even greater urgency.
- Opposition space remains crowdedIt was in any case brimming with competing ambitions of a Congress that has struggled to reconcile itself to its diminution and regional chieftains who hope to occupythe space that has opened up. AAP’s hope to emerge as the most effective rallying point for anti-BJP sentiments failed to materialise, throwing a lifeline for Congress. But neither this, nor the win in tiny HP will be enough to help it get itself re-credentialled as the ‘other’ pole. The continuing commotion in the anti-Modi column can help himin a contest which is, once again, expected to turn presidential.
- Limits Of FreebiesAAP and Congress made extravagant promises in Gujarat, but voters chose BJP, which largely shunned the temptation of populism and focused on development. In Himachal, Congress has promised to reverse the new pension scheme for babus but the rotational nature of the state’s politics and bitter in fighting in BJP may have played a bigger role in its win.
7: Number of terms won by BJP in Gujarat, equalling the Left’s winning streak in West Bengal in 1977-2011
156: Most seats won by any party in Gujarat, beating Congress’s haul of 149 in 1985
52.5%: BJP’s highest vote share ever in Gujarat. From 1.3% (as Jana Sangh in 1962), it crossed 50% for 1st time, but couldn’t top Cong’s 1985 record of 55.6%
80: Seats flipped this time in Gujarat. Despite its huge loss, Congress wrested 5 seats from BJP
1,92,263 and
38,183: Winning margins of Gujarat and HP CMs Bhupendra Patel & Jairam Thakur, the highest in their states
8: Number of times govt has rotated between BJP and Congress in Himachal since 1985, when Cong returned to office
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