The year 2025, reshaped global commerce in ways not seen for decades, moving into another uncertain phase, as pressures on growth and stability are expected to intensify. So will 2026 be another turbulent patch for global trade?
Global merchandise trade managed to stay resilient through 2025, even as US President Donald Trump pushed ahead with higher tariffs that effectively raised barriers around the world’s largest economy. According to data cited by shipping industry veteran John McCown, global container volumes increased 2.1% in October compared with the same month last year, according to Bloomberg.
Overall figures, however, revealed sharp regional divergences.
While inbound container volumes into the US fell by 8%, imports into Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and India recorded strong growth, pointing to a rebalancing of global trade flows.
“World container supply chains have already begun to adapt and reconfigure trading patterns,” McCown wrote in a research note cited by Bloomberg. He compared the current slowdown with last year’s rally, noting that after a 15.2% rise in US container imports in 2024, “to say that the annual total for 2025 will be in diametric contrast is an understatement.”
McCown attributed much of this shift to Trump’s trade policies. In a LinkedIn post, he argued that if 2025 marked the peak of tariff announcements, the impact would be felt more fully in the year ahead. He wrote that if 2025 was the year of the tariff, 2026 will be the year of tariff consequences.
2026 — The year of tariff consequences
Trade analysts said that several fault lines are already visible as 2026 draws closer. One of the most closely watched developments will be the review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the North American trade pact that came into force in 2020. The agreement is due for reassessment just six years after implementation, an unusually short timeframe for such a deal.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers this month that the process has drawn heavy engagement, with more than 1,500 responses submitted during the public consultation. “Many stakeholders expressed support for the USMCA and many explicitly called for the agreement to be extended,” Greer said, as quoted by Bloomberg.
“At the same time, virtually all stakeholders also called for some sort of improvement to the agreement.” Any attempt to revise the deal is expected to be contentious, as gains for one member could come at the expense of another. Industries in both Canada and Mexico are already under pressure from US import duties, while diplomatic relations remain strained. Tensions worsened in October after Trump halted trade talks with Canada in response to anti-tariff advertisements featuring Ronald Reagan.
At the same time, global shipping faces the prospect of fresh disruption. Industry experts warn that two developments, both seemingly positive, could strain supply chains.
The first is a possible large-scale return of cargo vessels to the Red Sea, after shipping lines were diverted around southern Africa for nearly two years due to Houthi attacks. With hostilities easing since the Gaza peace plan took effect in October, the route has become safer. French carriers CMA CGM SA and Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S have already resumed limited transits through the area.
But a full return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal could overwhelm existing infrastructure. Lars Jensen, chief executive of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, warned during a Flexport webinar in November that it would “flood the market with a lot more capacity” and lead to “massive port congestion issues in Europe.”
A second risk could emerge from stronger demand. Jensen said that if the US economy accelerates in 2026 as Trump administration officials predict, driven by lower interest rates and increased investment, a wave of inventory restocking could exceed the shipping sector’s ability.
Uncertainty also surrounds the durability of the Trump administration’s recent trade agreements. While the White House has highlighted deals struck with several major economies in 2025, these arrangements lack the enforcement mechanisms typical of traditional trade pacts. Most include only short-term commitments, and the truce with China extends for just one year, leaving unresolved the US’s most imbalanced trading relationship.
Concerns that these agreements could unravel have been reinforced by recent events. Indonesia has resisted US trade demands since Washington announced what it called a “landmark trade deal” in July, fearing constraints on its independence, with a revised agreement now expected in late January. China has raised objections with Malaysia and Cambodia over their trade deals with the US, warning against actions that undermine Beijing’s interests. The UK has also encountered fresh complications, Bloomberg reported.
Greer said last week that difficult negotiations with the European Union and India are likely to continue into the new year. His office also warned of possible retaliation against the EU, citing what Washington views as excessive regulation of American technology firms.
Adding to the uncertainty is a pending US Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, the sweeping duties imposed on most major trading partners. A ruling against the administration could raise questions over whether importers would be refunded tariffs already paid.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CBS’s Face the Nation that even in such a scenario, refunds were unlikely. It would be “pretty unlikely that they’re going to call for widespread refunds, because it would be an administrative problem,” he said.
Betting markets currently assign roughly a 75% probability to Trump losing the case, a result that could push the administration to rely on alternative legal powers to maintain tariffs.