US tariffs: Donald Trump vows tariffs on foreign drugs, analysts warn of higher prices and empty shelves

US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose steep import taxes on pharmaceuticals — some as high as 200% — is drawing sharp warnings from industry experts who fear it could push up drug prices in the United States and trigger shortages, according to an AP report.

Trump, who has already levied tariffs on products ranging from autos to steel, now wants to extend them to medicines — a sector that for decades has mostly entered the US duty-free. A recent trade deal with Europe has already set a 15% tariff on certain drugs, and the president has threatened far higher duties on imports from elsewhere.


“Shock and awe is how this industry is going from zero (tariffs) to the potential of 200%,” Maytee Pereira of PwC told AP.

Healthcare analysts say such a move could undermine Trump’s pledge to cut drug prices. “A tariff would hurt consumers most of all, as they would feel the inflationary effect ... directly when paying for prescriptions at the pharmacy and indirectly through higher insurance premiums,” wrote Diederik Stadig of ING, adding that low-income households and the elderly would be most exposed.

Though Trump has suggested a one-year delay to give drugmakers time to stockpile or shift production to the US, analysts told AP the impact could still hit by 2027 or 2028 as inventories run down. Stadig warned that even a 25% levy could gradually raise US drug prices by 10–14%.

Drugmakers have increasingly offshored production to countries such as China, India, Ireland and Switzerland, leaving the US with a nearly $150 billion trade deficit in pharmaceuticals last year. Analysts noted that 97% of antibiotics, 92% of antivirals and 83% of top generic drugs rely on at least one active ingredient manufactured abroad.

“The only way to truly protect yourself from the tariffs would be to build the supply chain end to end in the United States,” Pereira said.

While some global players such as Roche and Johnson & Johnson have announced multibillion-dollar US investments, experts told AP that generics — which make up 92% of prescriptions — could be hardest hit. Marta Wosinska of Brookings said generic manufacturers may exit the US market rather than bear costs, warning that even small supply shocks, as seen in past cancer drug shortages, can cripple patient care.

“In an ideal world, we would be making everything that’s important only in the US,” Wosinska said. “But it costs a lot of money ... If we want to reverse this, we would really have to redesign our system. How much are we willing to spend?”