Shutdown fallout: US scraps October inflation and jobs figures after data-gathering halt; gaps cloud Fed’s December decision

The US government will not release official inflation or jobs figures for October after the record-long shutdown prevented statisticians from gathering essential data, leaving the Federal Reserve without two major indicators ahead of its December policy meeting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed on Friday that the October consumer price index (CPI) has been cancelled because staff were unable to collect the survey information in time, as per Reuters.




“BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data,” the agency said, adding that only a few indexes based on nonsurvey data could be reconstructed. Where possible, October values will be issued alongside November’s CPI report on 18 December.

The shutdown—which lasted 43 days from early October to mid-November—also forced the cancellation of the October employment report.

While October nonfarm payroll figures will be combined with November data on 16 December, the unemployment rate for that month “will never be known”, reported Reuters.

A similar message was delivered in Washington on Friday, with the BLS reiterating that survey-based data simply “was not gathered” during the stoppage, reported news agency AFP.

The agency noted that CPI collection typically relies on in-person visits to retailers, including supermarkets, and telephone interviews. Household survey data for the jobs report is gathered in the same way.

The cancellations have intensified uncertainty for the Federal Reserve, which meets on 9–10 December.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently compared navigating the economy without standard datasets to “driving in the fog”, reported The Guardian.

“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” he said last month.

Fed officials were already under pressure, with inflation still above typical levels and policymakers weighing whether to deliver another rate cut.

A speech by New York Fed President John Williams on Friday added to expectations of a possible adjustment, saying he saw “room for a further adjustment in the near term”, according to The Guardian.

The September jobs report, released with delays because of the shutdown, showed 119,000 jobs added but the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021.

The full October labour market report will never be published, although the job creation figure for that month will appear alongside November’s release a week after the Fed’s meeting.

The shutdown has already pushed back a series of economic indicators, including retail sales and trade data, as per AFP.

It comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to complicate inflation pressures, with some Fed officials considering holding rates steady for longer.

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