Saudi crude imports narrow gap with Russia, set to become biggest supplier

New Delhi: Crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia have hit their highest levels since Nov 2019, clocking nearly 1-1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Feb, and overtaking Russia temporarily to emerge as the biggest supplier to India.According to data shared by Kpler, a global data and analytics service provider, crude imports from the West Asian country peaked at 1.3 million barrels on Feb 20 (Friday), eclipsing Russian supplies of about 1.1 mbd. Saudi Arabia has consistently held the third or fourth position in India's crude import basket over the past couple of years, with Russia remaining on top and Iraq and the UAE occupying the other two spots. The recent surge has significantly narrowed the gap between Riyadh and Moscow that widened after India ramped up Russian oil purchases following the Ukraine invasion. The numbers come amid mounting pressure from the US to reduce Russian crude purchases. "We expect some moderation in the coming weeks, with a few parcels likely slipping into early March. On a full-month basis, our predictive flows model currently indicates Saudi imports averaging closer to 1-1.1 mbd in Feb, still a multi-year high," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler. He said Russian crude imports are expected to be 1-1.2 mbd in Feb and may fall to 0.8-1 mbd a day in next month. "However, we continue to see this as a short-term stabilisation... we expect Russia's share in India's crude slate to gradually stabilise at a lower range in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025 as commercial and policy frictions build," he said. The analyst added Russian imports are expected to dip further in April as Nayara's Vadinar refinery, heavily dependent on Russian crude following EU sanctions, is scheduled for maintenance in April-May.