Australia, NZ dlrs fettered by lockdown fears

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were back on the defensive on Monday as the rapid rise of coronavirus cases forced more restrictions in Europe and dimmed the outlook for global growth.

The Aussie fell to $0.7116, having failed to sustain a brief rally to $0.7224 last week. Support lies at $0.7090 ahead of the low for the year at $0.6994.

The kiwi

dollar

lapsed to $0.6728, leaving behind last week's top of $0.6834. Attention is now on its trough for the year at $0.6702.

The Netherlands' decision to

lockdown

for Christmas sent a shudder through markets, which had thought drastic measures were not needed given progress on vaccinations.

Most Australian states are resisting calls for tighter restrictions though there have been reports of consumers cancelling holidays and restaurant reservations.

If the economy does stay open, many analysts now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (

RBA

) to end its bond-buying campaign in February at its first meeting of next year.

A stellar

jobs report

for November last week seemed to seal the case for an early end to quantitative easing (QE).

"We see the RBA ending QE with little need for the program given unemployment is at 4.6 per cent and the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to end their QE by March," said NAB economist Taylor Nugent. "The dynamics of the emergent Omicron wave will be the key thing to watch in the near term."

Minutes of the RBA's December policy meeting are out on Tuesday and could offer more detail on the discussion on bonds buying and the timeline for rate hikes.

RBA officials argue a rate rise is unlikely until at least 2023, but markets are wagering on a move as early as May or June and two more increases by year end.

The deciding factor on bonds could be the Australian consumer price report for the fourth quarter in late January, where NAB is looking for another high reading in underlying inflation.

Having started the year down at 0.11 per cent, yields on three-year debt have been trading around 1.0 per cent in recent weeks while the spread over 10-year bonds has shrunk to the smallest since late 2020.

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