Trump’s 100% tariffs on China: For India, the message is clear - No deal with US is ever final, says GTRI

India should be careful in its negotiations with the US and should focus on its self-reliance rather than depending on Washington, Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI) said in a report.

In a report titled “Trump’s tariff offensive hits a rare earth wall,” the think tank analysed the impact of Trump’s recently imposed tariffs on China and how India should proceed.


The US President Donald Trump on Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports, raising total US duties to around 130%, which will be in effect from November 1.

Also read | US hits China with 100% tariffs! Will it benefit India? Here’s what experts say
The action is one of the most major escalations in US-China trade tensions since the 2018 tariff war. Washington’s move responds to China’s stringent restrictions on rare-earth exports, which are vital for the US defence, clean-energy, and technology sectors.

‘The message is clear’: Lessons for India
The report said that India should advance its negotiations with the US cautiously and on "equal terms," warning that “no deal with the US is ever final.”

It suggested ensuring reciprocity and safeguarding strategic autonomy. The GTRI report also said that instead of depending on “shifting US promises,” New Delhi should prioritise self-reliance in critical technologies and minerals, shielding its economy from future trade shocks.

The country should also use its neutral stance to strengthen ties with both Western and BRICS nations.

Impact
Prices of electric vehicles, wind turbines and semiconductor parts are expected to rise as China and the US get embroiled in a new series of trade tensions.

The report further noted that if Washington seeks support from its allies, costs could rise further, as they can’t quickly match China’s dominance in rare-earth minerals.

Analysing the impact, think tank GTRI said, “The impact will be felt quickly. Prices of EVs, wind turbines, and semiconductor parts are expected to rise, while the US will try to "friend-shore" its mineral supply chains to Australia, Vietnam, and Canada. China, meanwhile, is likely to redirect supplies toward its non-Western partners to strengthen alternative industrial networks.”
Washington may feel the heat too
Washington is still heavily reliant on Beijing for its electronic, textile, footwear, white goods and solar panels, some areas where China could strike back.

Once the new tariffs take effect, prices might surge making it difficult for the Trump administration to handle the inflation and production costs. Hence, the US President’s “tough-on-China” approach could backfire, potentially raising costs for American consumers and weakening his wider economic agenda.

‘China appears better prepared’
Given the importance of rare earths to US industries, Washington may soon have little choice but to negotiate a new deal with Beijing. “Unlike the US, which often acts before weighing economic consequences, China appears more deliberate and better prepared,” the GTRI said.