Rupee breaches 96/$ before closing at new low

MUMBAI: The rupee hit a record low of 96.14 against the US dollar on Friday before settling at 95.97, one paise lower than its previous close, as global and domestic pressures weighed on the currency.

The decline comes amid a widening current account deficit, continued selling by foreign investors, and broader macroeconomic pressures, while global developments added to the downside.

According to Abhishek Goenka, founder of forex advisory firm IFA Global, “It’s a one sided market. Exporters are reluctant to hedge. Market participants are broadly divided in two camps as of now. First, who are long USDINR. Second, who expect some measures from RBI or a sudden reversal and are on the sidelines. It’s very difficult to time that reversal. There are very few who are thinking shorting USDINR at this point.”

“This sentiment is reflected in price action. There is incessant pressure on the rupee. Absolutely no respite. The only thing holding is RBI supply. If they step off, USDINR will fly,” he added.

US President Donald Trump’s comments that he is still strongly considering resuming attacks on Iran dampened risk sentiment, while a price hike by oil marketing companies is seen as a temporary measure as it passes on only a tenth of the increase in costs. Yields on US treasuries have risen, with the yield on US two-year bonds up 8 basis points to 4.05% and the 10-year yield rising 6 basis points to 4.52%, making US assets more attractive.

Brent crude futures rose more than 3% to $109 per barrel on Friday, nearing the $110 mark, adding to pressure on the rupee through higher import costs.

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