Real estate recovery: India’s housing sales rise after a year; Gurugram leads, MMR lags

India’s residential real estate sector posted a 2 per cent year-on-year growth in housing sales across the top eight tier-1 cities in June 2025, marking the first annual increase in 12 months, according to a UBS report. As per news agency ANI, this rebound follows declines of 11 per cent in April and 2 per cent in May, largely due to the fading base effect from high absorption levels seen in April-May 2024.While the June figures show signs of recovery, overall sales for the April-June quarter remained 4 per cent lower on a year-on-year basis. City-wise trends were uneven, with Gurugram emerging as the top performer, recording a sharp 68 per cent jump in volumes compared to the same period last year. Chennai and Hyderabad followed with growth rates of 24 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively.In contrast, some key markets registered notable declines. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) saw a 29 per cent drop in housing sales, while Pune and Bengaluru posted decreases of 27 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.Despite mixed sales performance, housing prices across top cities continued to rise. In June, average absorption prices climbed 20 per cent year-on-year, compared to 10 per cent in May. UBS noted that “pricing growth remained firm across cities, aided by healthy inventory levels (driven in turn by calibrated supply).” On a quarterly basis, prices were flat sequentially but showed a 14 per cent annual gain.Gurugram led the price increase as well, with a 40 per cent year-on-year jump, followed by Chennai at 21 per cent and Bengaluru at 14 per cent. MMR, Pune, and Hyderabad recorded more modest price gains in the 8-10 per cent range, reflecting resilience in pricing despite varying demand trends.New residential launches declined by 12 per cent in June compared to the previous year, indicating a demand-calibrated approach by developers. This resulted in a stable inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio, which edged up slightly to 1.68x in June from 1.66x in May—well below the 3x level observed during the market downturn.However, inventory levels in southern cities such as Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and Chennai rose on a year-on-year basis.UBS analysts projected a positive outlook for the MMR and Gurugram markets due to strong price momentum and controlled inventories. Meanwhile, caution was advised for Bengaluru and Hyderabad, where inventory accumulation was observed.As per ANI, a parallel trend of premiumisation continues to shape the market. While demand for high-value homes is growing, affordability has emerged as a concern. As per the Nuvama report, although sales volumes grew marginally, sales value surged significantly, suggesting buyers are shifting towards more expensive properties.