New GDP series raises growth projection for FY26 to 7.6%

NEW DELHI: India's economy is estimated to grow at 7.6% in 2025-26, led by manufacturing and services as the country's statistics office released revised data series with a new base year of 2022-23.

The message from the revised numbers is that the economy has remained resilient against the backdrop of trade and geopolitical tensions, and India retains the tag as the fastest growing major economy in the world.

The second advance estimates unveiled by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Friday showed growth in Asia's third largest economy for the current fiscal year was better than the 7.4% estimated in the earlier estimate released in Jan, based on the 2011-12 series. It was also above Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 7.4%.

The data showed that the economy grew by 7.8% during Oct-Dec, slower than the upwardly revised 8.4% in the July-Sept quarter, but still robust.

"Economic performance remains resilient despite global uncertainties. Three consecutive years of more than 7% growth signal macro resilience," said chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, adding that the Economic Survey's projection for FY27 had been revised upwards to 7%-7.4% under the new series.

Revisions see improvement in health of mfg sector
The statistics office said the new data series captures structural changes in the economy, incorporates latest data sources, improves estimation methodologies and enhances coverage and accuracy, including the informal sector.

"We have given more focus on having more granular data in this series. A base year revision exercise basically entails capturing structural changes in the economy more effectively, incorporating new data sources, use of better and improved methodologies, and aligning national accounts with international practices," said statistics secretary Saurabh Garg.

The Centre has undertaken a revamp of several datasets and an upgraded retail inflation data with a new base year of 2024 was released earlier, while the index of industrial production data set will also be upgraded with new data sources and a fresh base year of 2022-23.

The changes in the data sets include more information about the shifts in the economy and are expected to blunt criticism about the quality of the country's data.

The new numbers showed that GDP growth for 2023-24 has been revised to 7.2% under the new series from 9.2% in the old, while it has been upwardly revised to 7.1% for 2024-25 in the new series from 6.5% in the 2011-12 series. Similar revisions have been undertaken for quarterly growth numbers for April-June and July-Sept.

The revisions showed a dramatic improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector, with economists saying that the old series may have underestimated the performance of the key sector.

"Manufacturing delivered an impressive 13.3% growth in Q3 FY2026, up from 10.8% in the same quarter last year, reflecting a strong rebound in industrial activity..