Muted September for D-Street? Trends suggest caution for markets; GDP, GST and US tariffs send mixed cues

Historical patterns indicate a potentially muted period for Indian equity markets in September. Last year during this month, Indian stocks reached their highest points before experiencing significant volatility.

Statistical analysis by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, cited by Economic Times, reveals that both Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 have declined in six out of the previous ten years during September, with average decreases of 0.38% and 0.33% respectively.


"As per seasonality trends, the September series usually remains dull," said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Taparia noted that the current index configuration appears unfavourable. "Till Nifty remains below 25,000 zones, upside could be capped with major support at 24,000 levels," he said.

Similar downward trends are evident in American markets, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average showing declines in six of the past ten years, whilst the Nasdaq 100 has decreased in seven out of ten instances.

Taparia further observed that despite the Dow Jones and S&P 500 achieving new peaks alongside increases in precious metals, the rupee has reached its lowest value ever.

A positive opening for the month

Despite lingering concerns, Indian stock markets opened for the September month on a positive note, with the Sensex rising over 300 points and the Nifty50 trading above 24,500.

India’s GDP growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of FY26— well above estimates— further buoyed market and investor sentiment.

Still, analysts advise a prudent and balanced approach as a week of significant macroeconomic events unfolds, including the upcoming GST Council meeting.

Foreign investor activity remains a dampener, however, with FII outflows hitting a six-month high in August as Rs 34,993 crore was pulled from equities, partly on account of US tariff pressures.