Kharif crop production likely to be better than last year: India Ratings

COIMBATORE: Crop production during the ongoing kharif season is likely to cross last year’s level if the rainfall pattern during the rest of the monsoon period remains similar to the one seen between June 1 and July 15, India Ratings and Research has said.
“This is in view of this year’s higher sowing of kharif food grains, increased acreage under pulses and higher reservoir levels than in 2014-15,” the agency said.
Kharif food grains represent close to half (49.6%) of the total food grain output in India and sowing of this crop was 63% higher by mid-July 2015 compared to the same period last year.
Although this was because 2014-15 was a bad monsoon year, sowing is currently 8.72% higher than the normal kharif sowing area by mid-July. Higher sowing is mainly due to 13% excess rainfall (higher than long-period average) in June 2015.
Total kharif crop sowing area as on July 17 was 56.33 million hectares compared with 34.63 million hectares in the corresponding period last year. Sowing of key crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds is higher than last year.
Sowing of rice is 4.4% higher than last year, but it is 11.4% lower than normal sowing. In case of pulses, sowing is 134% higher than in last year and 36% higher than normal sowing. Sowing of oilseeds is 234% higher and 44.7% higher than normal area.
“Kharif food grain production outlook depends on the amount of rainfall in the second half of July and in the remaining two months of monsoon, as rainfall in the first half of July was well below normal,” India Ratings, which is part of the Fitch Group, said. A bad monsoon during 2014-15 pulled down the kharif production to 124.60 million tonnes from 128.69 million tonnes in 2013-14.
For kharif oil seeds, the probability of higher production is also bright due to a 44.7% increase in its acreage from normal acreage. However, sugarcane, cotton, jute and mesta production is likely to be a shade lower than in 2014-15, India Ratings estimated.
Reservoir water storage till mid-July 2015 was 33% higher than the previous 10 years’ annual average. Reservoir level was only 12% higher for the same period last year.
“This could be a major source of support to the standing kharif crops in the event of a shortfall in rain during the remaining months of the monsoon period,” the agency stated.