Indian shrimp exports are expected to decline by 15-18 per cent this fiscal year after a steep hike in US import tariffs, according to a Crisil Ratings report. The increase, which took effect on August 27, has raised the overall duty burden on Indian shrimp entering the US to 58.26 per cent.
The ratings agency said the development will weigh on pricing power, even as exporters attempt to diversify their product portfolio and expand into other markets, as quoted by news agency ANI. Prior to the hike, Indian shipments were already subject to a 50 per cent reciprocal tariff, along with a 5.77 per cent countervailing duty and a 2.49 per cent anti-dumping duty.
Exporters had front-loaded shipments in the first quarter of FY26 to beat the tariff deadline, but revenues — which have been flat for four years — are now projected to drop 18-20 per cent year-on-year. India’s shrimp exports were valued at around $5 billion in FY25, with the US accounting for nearly 48 per cent.
Crisil also said that exporters’ operating profit margins will narrow by 150-200 basis points, as higher costs cannot be fully passed on to customers. Margins are likely to fall to 5.0-5.5 per cent this fiscal, a ten-year low, due to tariff pressures, lower capacity utilisation and reduced sales of premium shrimp varieties that typically go to the US.
The report, based on an analysis of 63 rated exporters representing 55 per cent of industry revenues, warned that weaker earnings and slimmer margins will hurt debt protection metrics and credit profiles.
The US has long been the most attractive market for Indian shrimp, offering stable demand and profitable margins. Exporters had continued supplying despite existing duties and even a 10 per cent reciprocal tariff imposed in April 2025, with American buyers absorbing part of the cost.
However, the latest sharp increase places India at a marked disadvantage compared to rivals such as Ecuador, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, which face lower US tariff barriers.
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