India to cut Russian oil imports in a big way? Major refiners may halt direct trade from late November; alternate sources being explored

India plans to reduce direct imports of Russian crude from late November following the introduction of new US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, which come into effect on November 21. Analysts expect Indian refiners—responsible for over half of the country’s Russian crude used in petrol and diesel production—to comply with the sanctions.

According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, quoted by PTI, the move is likely to trigger a significant drop in Russian crude deliveries in December, with a gradual recovery expected by early 2026 through intermediaries and alternative trading arrangements.

Major refiners halt Russian supply?

Reliance Industries Ltd, which has a long-term supply agreement with Rosneft, will reportedly stop purchasing Russian crude. Two state-controlled refiners—Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Mittal Energy—have also confirmed plans to cease Russian imports, according to the reports. Together, these three entities accounted for over half of India’s 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude imports during the first half of 2025.

However, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is expected to continue importing Russian crude.

Diversifying supply sources

Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst, Sumit Ritolia, noted that Russia remained India’s top crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. “Most Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt or reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil,” Ritolia said. He added that while Russian oil will remain part of India’s imports, future deliveries will require more complex logistics and trading arrangements.

To offset reduced Russian supply, Indian refiners are increasing purchases from alternative sources, including the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States. US crude imports to India reached 568,000 barrels per day in October, the highest since March 2021, largely driven by economic factors rather than sanctions. Flows are expected to normalise to 250,000–350,000 barrels per day in December and January.

“We expect a sharp decline in Russian crude imports in December, followed by a gradual recovery through mid-to-late Q1 2026, as new intermediaries emerge and alternative routes are established. Higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities," Ritolia added.

Ultimately, Indian refiners are set to diversify their sourcing further, increasing crude procurement from Latin America, the US, West Africa, and the Middle East, while maintaining some level of Russian oil imports via intermediaries.