India’s medium term growth potential outlook has been revised by Fitch Ratings with prospects brightening.Fitch has revised upwards the GDP growth potential to 6.4%, marking a 0.2% increase. China’s forecast, on the other hand, has been trimmed to 4.3% from 4.6%.
The update comes as part of Fitch’s latest assessment of potential GDP growth across 10 major emerging markets over the next five years, reported ANI.
In its report, the rating agency noted, “Our estimate of India's trend growth is slightly higher at 6.4 per cent, compared with 6.2 per cent previously. We think TFP growth will slow from recent years to be in line with its long-run average of 1.5 per cent.”
The revised outlook for India is majorly driven by a stronger contribution from labour inputs, particularly total employment, rather than gains in productivity. Fitch pointed to a sharper increase in the country’s labour force participation rate in recent years, although it expects this growth to slow down in the future.
The agency also revised its assessment of India’s labour data, upgrading the expected impact of the participation rate while the projected contribution of capital deepening has been lowered.
Total Factor Productivity (TFP), a key component in determining growth potential, is also expected to slow down after years of stronger performance, aligning with a 1.5 per cent long-term average.
Meanwhile, China’s economic trajectory appears to be losing momentum. The downgrade in its supply-side growth outlook comes from weaker investment, particularly due to prolonged stress in the property market, which has weakened capital deepening.
Fitch also cited a steeper-than-expected decline in China’s labour force participation and a marginal dip in TFP growth, now aligned with the country’s recent five-year average.
The two revisions highlight a shifting landscape in global growth dynamics, with India slowly gaining ground as China faces structural challenges to sustaining its previous pace of expansion.
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