Economic Survey 2026: Will India-US trade deal be sealed this year? What the document says

India’s ongoing trade talks with the United States may finally reach the finish line this year, the Economic Survey 2026 has suggested. The Economic Survey, presented in Parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday, said the development would help in bringing down uncertainty on the external front.

“At the same time, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are expected to conclude during the year, which could help reduce uncertainty on the external front,” the Survey said.




Commenting on the global trade front the Economic Survey said India must improve its competitive manufacturing capacity to fully benefit from trade agreements, including the free trade agreements it has signed.

It further noted that current global conditions pose external uncertainties for the country, rather than creating immediate macroeconomic stress. The Survey also cautioned that slower growth in major trading partners, tariff-driven disruptions to global trade and volatility in capital flows could at times weigh on exports and hit investor sentiment.

India and the US have been negotiating a bilateral trade agreement since March last year, with six rounds of talks completed so far. The progress has, however, been slow after Trump administration imposed steep tariffs of 50% on Indian goods from August last year.

The 50% tariffs include:

• 25% reciprocal duty imposed in April 2025.
• Additional 25% penalty, was due to India’s purchase of Russian crude, which US claimed fuels Moscow’s “war” machine in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the long-anticipated trade agreement between the two nations could be sealed “any day now,” with sources in the ministry of external affairs indicating that talks are ongoing and have made substantial headway. The comments, made to ANI, come amid heightened trade tensions, with US President Donald Trump having imposed a 50% tariff on India, one of the highest rates globally.

The update came after India announced the conclusion of negotiations with the European Union on a free trade agreement, described as the “mother of all deals”. With the India-EU FTA now wrapped up, New Delhi has shifted its attention to pushing its trade pact with Washington across the finish line.