China eases export curbs: Relaxations useful but self-reliance India’s only shield, says GTRI; warns on $100bn trade deficit

China's decision to relax export controls on fertilisers, rare earths, and tunnel-boring machines to India represents a positive development, yet India must prioritise self-sufficiency to address its growing trade imbalance with Beijing, according to a Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) analysis.

The GTRI analysis emphasised India's substantial economic reliance on Chinese imports.



This follows Beijing's previous restrictions on vital minerals like gallium, germanium, and graphite, which affected India's electronics and electric vehicle industries. In June 2025, Chinese battery manufacturer CATL's withdrawal of engineers from Foxconn's Chennai facility led to operational cessation.

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Despite the easing of restrictions, significant economic disparities persist. India's trade deficit with China reached $100 billion in FY2025, while Beijing maintained support for Pakistan during recent conflicts, accordinf to report cited by ANI. GTRI warned that this dependency provides China considerable influence during diplomatic tensions.

A trade deficit manifests when a nation's imports exceed its exports in value.

GTRI's analysis revealed structural issues, noting China's dominant position in supplying over 70 per cent of India's essential requirements.

Consumer electronics demonstrate this dependency, with Chinese imports accounting for laptops (80.5 per cent) and flat panel displays (86 per cent).

India's portion of bilateral trade has diminished significantly to 11.2 per cent from 42.3 per cent in twenty years, indicating vulnerable supply chains and increased reliance on Chinese components.

GTRI proposed comprehensive solutions, including establishing a reverse-engineering initiative utilising IITs and CSIR laboratories to analyse imported products and develop open-access specifications. A proposed "Localize-100" framework would monitor progress on crucial imports.

The analysis indicated that whilst China's relaxation of restrictions sends a positive signal, it cannot conceal the fundamental trade imbalance. India's security depends on strengthening domestic production, reducing import reliance, and developing robust supply networks.

"A stronger, more self-reliant India will be better placed to engage China on equal terms, while keeping relations steady and pragmatic rather than hostage to sudden shifts," the report said.

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