India’s exports to China surged 90% in November to hit $2.2 billion! However, the remarkable year-on-year spike masks the truth of how volatile India’s exports to China are, and the growing dependence on the neighbouring country for imports, according to a new report by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). From April to November, exports grew by 33%, touching $12.2 billion, up from $9.2 billion the previous year.
According to GTRI, India’s trade relationship with China has entered a phase of sharp contrasts. “Overall, India’s export growth to China is not broad-based. It is concentrated mainly in naphtha and a few atypical electronics products, rather than across India’s traditional export basket,” said GTRI, striking a cautious note.
Why did India’s exports to China surge?
According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, the spike in exports is largely driven by a limited range of products. Naphtha is the largest contributor, with exports rising by 512% in October and 172% from April to October - totaling a whopping $1.4 billion, due to strong Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstocks.
Electronics also saw unusually sharp increases. Exports of printed circuit boards surged to $296.5 million in October, an 8,577% year-on-year increase, while shipments from April to October rose over 2,000% to $418 million.
Exports of mobile phone components also increased by 82% to $362 million, which is unusual given India's significant imports of these items from China.
In contrast, exports of iron ore continued to decline, dropping by 1.2% in October and 30% from April to October, while shrimp exports showed only modest growth.
Devil in Details?India's exports of its leading three products to China—naphtha, iron ore, and shrimps—have seen huge fluctuations from year to year, indicating that these exports are more influenced by Chinese demand than by a stable export strategy, notes GTRI.
Naphtha exports increased from $1.83 billion in FY2022 to $1.91 billion in FY2023, but then sharply declined to approximately $1.26 billion in FY2024. They remained unchanged in FY2025.
Iron ore exports were even more erratic, dropping from $2.49 billion in FY2022 to $1.40 billion in FY2023, then rising to $3.64 billion in FY2024, before falling again to $1.89 billion in FY2025.
Shrimp exports have been relatively more stable but still showed variations, increasing from $823 million in FY2022 to $924 million in FY2023, then decreasing to $798 million in FY2024 and $773 million in FY2025.
“This uneven pattern shows that India’s key exports to China lack consistency and largely rise or fall with shifts in Chinese demand, prices and policy, rather than reflecting sustained market access or diversification,” says the GTRI analysis.
What is India importing from China?
India's imports from China are heavily concentrated in four main categories: machinery, electronics, plastics, and organic chemicals - these make up nearly 80% of the total.
From January to October 2025, electronics led the imports, at $38 billion. This included mobile phone components ($8.6 billion), integrated circuits ($6.2 billion), laptops ($4.5 billion), solar cells and modules ($3.0 billion), flat-panel displays ($2.6 billion), lithium-ion batteries ($2.3 billion), and memory chips ($1.8 billion).
Machinery imports were next at $25.9 billion, with transformers alone making up $2.1 billion. This indicates India's reliance on Chinese capital goods for power and industrial projects.
Organic chemicals imports touched $11.5 billion - this was largely due to $1.7 billion in antibiotics. This highlights China's strong position in the pharmaceutical intermediates sector.
Plastics imports were $6.3 billion, including $871 million in PVC resin, while steel and steel products totaled $4.6 billion, and medical and scientific equipment added $2.5 billion.
Together, these figures show that India’s import bill from China is anchored in electronics, machinery, chemicals and materials that are difficult to substitute quickly, explaining the persistence of a large bilateral trade deficit despite efforts to diversify supply chains, says GTRI.
India-China Trade Deficit Mounting - and it’s a cause for worry!
The GTRI report notes that India’s trade gap with China is touching new records, reflecting a skewed trade relationship that warrants a closer look. As GTRI points out - India's trade with China remains extremely imbalanced, and it is characterized by weak exports, increasing imports. A record trade deficit is expected this year.
Exports have decreased from $23.0 billion in 2021 to $15.2 billion in 2022, remained low at $14.5 billion in 2023, and increased slightly to $15.1 billion in 2024. In 2025, exports are projected to rise to $17.5 billion - but this is still considerably below levels seen before.
Importantly, imports have risen much more rapidly—from $87.7 billion in 2021 to $102.6 billion in 2022, $91.8 billion in 2023, and $109.6 billion in 2024. In 2025, they have surged to around $123.5 billion.
This has widened India's trade deficit with China substantially - from $64.7 billion in 2021 to $94.5 billion in 2024 - with an expected $106 billion in 2025.
What’s even more worrying is that data from China actually indicates an even larger gap! China’s own estimates put India’s exports to it in 2025 at about $19.1 billion, while imports are pegged much higher at $134.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $115.2 billion.
This gap highlights how sharply the trade imbalance between the two countries has widened. A closer look at the numbers also shows noticeable differences between data released by China Customs and India’s DGCI&S, even though both sets broadly point in the same direction.
For example, in November 2025, China recorded India’s exports at $1.9 billion, compared with $2.2 billion reported by Indian authorities.
Over the January–November period, China’s data showed exports of $17.5 billion, while India’s figures were lower at $16.0 billion.
Import data shows a similar divergence: China reported $11.1 billion of exports to India in November and $123.1 billion for the first eleven months of the year, exceeding India’s own estimates of $10.3 billion and $113.2 billion, respectively.
For the entire year of 2025, China's data suggests Indian exports of $19.1 billion and imports of $134.3 billion, compared to India's data showing $17.5 billion in exports and $123.5 billion in imports.
“Normally, import values are higher than export values because imports include freight and insurance (CIF), while exports are recorded on an FOB basis. On that logic, India reporting lower imports from China than China reports as exports is unusual, and may point to under-invoicing of imports to reduce customs duties—an issue that warrants investigation,” says GTRI.
“Taken together, the data shows that India’s recent export gains to China are narrow, volatile and heavily dependent on shifts in Chinese demand, rather than on durable market access or a diversified export base,” it says.
“Without a sustained strategy to expand competitive manufacturing, reduce import dependence in key sectors, and strengthen trade monitoring, short-term export spikes will do little to alter the fundamentally imbalanced nature of India–China trade,” it concludes.
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