If the current trends hold, the NDA’s return in Bihar will not be due to welfare alone, but because of two decades of transformation shaped by inclusive politics, real development, and the people’s growing trust in stable leadership.

As a student, whenever I travelled from Delhi to Bihar, the second-class coaches of the Jayanti Janta or Magadh Express were like moving snapshots of our society. The compartments were overcrowded, the toilets unbearable, and the trains usually late. But beyond the physical discomfort, what stayed with me were the conversations. Strangers spoke of caste wars, kidnappings, lootings, and the atmosphere of fear that had become normal in everyday life. While caste identities seemed to blur during the journey, the tensions remained close to the surface.

Those trains carried more than passengers. They carried frustration, anxiety, and an urgent desire to escape. Young men, with barely any belongings, would board with hope in their eyes and desperation in their steps. Their dreams lay elsewhere, away from a regime that had normalised violence, paralysed governance, and drained the dignity out of people’s lives. Rural migration was not just an economic shift, it was an emotional exodus. The stations looked like neglected dump yards, the toilets stank, and lawlessness hung in the air like smog.

This was the Bihar of the 1990s and early 2000s. It was a time when the state was trapped under a regressive regime, and Congress, its national ally, offered little accountability. It took a political earthquake in 2005, led by Nitish Kumar and the NDA, to break that spell. Two decades later, Bihar is unrecognisable from that past.

Now, when people speak, they talk about development. They talk about better roads, improved railways, clean and expanding airports, reliable electricity, and a sense of law and order. Government offices function. Schools run. Institutions deliver. People feel seen, not abandoned.

This transformation did not happen on its own. It is the result of consistent leadership, political stability, and a clear vision. The double-engine government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has combined central support with strong state execution. It is this partnership that has brought Bihar to a point of inflection.

As of now, all signs point to an NDA victory. If this trend holds, it would mark a historic endorsement of this model of governance. However, the second and final phase of voting is scheduled for November 11. The final results will be declared on November 14. So, while the writing on the wall appears clear, one must still wait for the people’s voice to be officially heard and respected.

Even before the final vote is cast, some naysayers have already begun to downplay the potential outcome. They call it “vote chori,” “vote kharidi,” or the “Das Hazari effect” – a reference to the Rs 10,000 transferred to over 1.2 crore women under the Mukhyamantri Rojgar Yojana. This view is not just simplistic, it is dishonest.

To see such a massive political response only through the narrow lens of a welfare scheme is to misunderstand Bihar. It is to disregard the deep social changes underway. It is to ignore the hard data that shows real, measurable progress.

Over the last 20 years, Bihar has made significant improvements in almost every indicator of development. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), household electrification in Bihar grew from just 28 percent in 2005-06 to 96 percent in 2019-21. In comparison, the all-India average moved from 68 percent to 97 percent during the same period. In sanitation, access rose from a mere 15 percent to nearly 50 percent. Institutional births tripled from 22 percent to 76 percent.

The shift in women’s education is even more remarkable. In 2005, barely 8 percent of women had completed more than 10 years of schooling. By 2019-21, that figure rose to 29 percent. While still behind the national average, the growth is sharp and sustained. As Prof. Shamika Ravi recently noted, rural Bihar has now overtaken rural West Bengal in household consumption, and urban areas are fast catching up. These are not emotional arguments. These are hard facts.

Economically, Bihar has also moved forward. Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar, in his Swaminomics column published in The Times of India on November 9, noted that Bihar’s compound annual growth rate over the last 20 years stood at 10.2 percent. This is higher than in Tamil Nadu (9.9 percent), Karnataka (9.6 percent), and Maharashtra — and only behind Gujarat (11.2 percent), Tripura (10.9 percent), and Mizoram (10.2 percent).

This is not just the result of good economics, but also good politics. Nitish Kumar did not rely on old caste equations. While the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan focused on the traditional Muslim-Yadav alliance, Nitish built a broader coalition. He brought in women as a central force in Bihar’s politics — by ensuring 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and government jobs. He focused on the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), who form nearly 36 percent of Bihar’s population. And the BJP brought in the support of the upper castes, a bloc that holds around 15.5 percent of the vote. This was pragmatic politics at its best — inclusive, grounded, and forward-looking.

Add to that the Nitish Kumar government’s communication strategy. From village sabhas to digital platforms, from direct outreach to welfare tracking, the state government has used every available tool to keep people informed, involved, and engaged. Nitish Kumar himself has toured every corner of the state, not just during campaigns but as part of his routine governance.

History tells us that when societies emerge from long periods of political decay, they can leap forward. We have seen this in parts of Europe, where nations burdened with authoritarian rule made giant strides once they embraced progressive leadership. Bihar today is on that path.

This election, therefore, is not just a contest for power. It is a contest of ideas, between the forces that once dragged Bihar into chaos and fear, and those that now push it toward development, inclusion, and stability. It is a choice between the memory of jungle raj and the promise of pragatisheel Bihar.

If the results unfold as expected, and the NDA led by Nitish Kumar returns to power, it will not be because of any single scheme or cash transfer. It will be because of something deeper, something rooted in the people’s experience and their aspirations.

It will be because of voter ka pyar, the love and trust between people and leadership that is built through consistent delivery and respectful dialogue. It will be because of janadesh ka satkar, the genuine honour shown to the public’s mandate through good governance and accountable politics. And above all, it will be because of pragatisheel vichar, the forward-looking vision that sees Bihar not as a problem to manage, but as a potential to unleash.

To dismiss this moment by calling it “vote chori” or “vote kharidi,” or reducing it to a one-time benefit or das hazariya, is not only wrong, it is unfair to the lived reality of millions of voters. It is the view of those who either live in denial or are unable to accept that Bihar has moved on.

Bihar, it looks like, has spoken again. Not in anger, not in fear, but in confidence. If it holds, this will be a verdict rooted in vote pyar, janadesh satkar, and pragatisheel vichar.

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Views expressed above are the author's own.

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