Electric vehicles won’t solve traffic, so what will?

This article is authored by Rajeev YSR Director of ThunderPlus.

The shift towards electric cars has frequently been presented as the ultimate fix for the problems of modern urban transportation. Improved air quality, emission reductions, and less reliance on non-renewable energy resources can be seen as valid and essential improvements in such cases, especially for cities growing rapidly. But the truth is that there lies a false assumption about what electricity-based transportation will solve, namely, traffic congestion. This is a myth. There is simply no way that electric cars will solve traffic issues since traffic is not about emissions but about efficiency.
The essence of congestion is that it results from the mismatch between the size of traffic and the finite nature of road space. Road space can only contain a certain amount of traffic irrespective of how those vehicles that use the roads are powered. The fact that the cars are driven by either petrol, diesel, or electric power will not alter the physical space that the vehicle takes up. A traffic jam composed of purely electric vehicles still constitutes a traffic jam; just one that is relatively quiet and produces little pollution.

This becomes more apparent upon a consideration of the geometry of traffic jams. Each individual car generally consumes 8 to 10 square meters of road surface area in travel, and even more if appropriate spacing between cars is considered. In densely populated cities, each car usually has only one person in it. Consequently, a great deal of road space is being consumed for the movement of very few individuals. The use of electric vehicles will not change this situation. Indeed, it may even worsen the problem because, by making car usage more environmentally friendly, the use of electric vehicles may lead to an increase in car ownership and usage.

Adding insult to injury is the proven effect of “induced demand.” The less expensive it is to travel by car, which is generally true for electric cars because of their low cost of energy and low maintenance, the more likely one is to use the car. This trend of efficiency quickly evaporates once demand grows enough to occupy all available roads. This process has occurred time and again whenever new highways have been opened. Initially, the added capacity helps reduce congestion; but soon, more vehicles join the fray, and congestion levels return to normal or worsen.

The problem of congestion must be approached from an alternative angle – one that focuses not on vehicles but on movement. The best approaches are those which emphasize efficient movements where fewer individuals use limited spatial resources. Efficient transportation modes like the metro, buses, and suburb trains can easily transport thousands of individuals per hour compared to private cars, which utilize relatively large spatial resources. However, efficiency alone is not enough. Efficiency is only one factor, with reliability, frequency, and connectivity playing crucial roles in adoption. Without reliable and frequent schedules, commuters will opt for personal cars despite any environmental concerns.
It is also crucial to address the problem of first and last-mile connectivity that often becomes a hindrance in utilizing public transport. Even the most well-planned metro system fails if people have trouble accessing the stations or getting to their destination from there. This can be addressed by integrating a system of easy connectivity through various modes of transportation like electric rickshaws, cycle sharing programs, and walkable cities.

Another extremely effective but highly political instrument is demand management. Techniques like congestion pricing, variable parking rates, and no-car zones impact commuters directly by imposing costs on using the road system, especially at rush hour. Cities that have employed these techniques have seen an undeniable trend towards carpooling, traveling outside rush hour, and utilizing public transportation. This is no mere traffic management; it is a redefinition of incentives for better mobility.

It is equally important to mention that urban design and land use can greatly influence how people get from place to place as well. Long travel is frequently the inevitable result of zoning that separates living areas from commercial districts as well as from areas used for production. However, the mixed-use strategy will lead to shorter travel, because everything people need will be close enough, thus making walking and cycling a better choice.

The place of technology comes into play, yet not in the traditional sense of the term. The future of intelligent transport does not rest in technological development at the vehicle level but in technological synergy as a whole. Advanced digital technology platforms that incorporate information about transport and traffic, along with ride-sharing schemes, are capable of greatly improving the efficacy of transport in the city. The focus here is not on private vehicles, but on access to transport in general.

Nothing undermines the significance of EVs. These machines are essential in lowering greenhouse gas emissions and promoting clean air in cities. But this benefit pertains to the environment; it has nothing to do with the physical space. Assuming that EVs are the solution to traffic problems would mean ignoring the need for a fundamental restructuring of our transportation system.

In essence, an effective change in urban transportation will not focus on the electricity in our vehicles but on whether our systems are efficient or inefficient. Cities that thrive will be those that place emphasis on throughput over speed, on shared transportation over private transportation, and accessibility over mobility. In this context, EVs are just one part of the equation.

If all the vehicles with internal combustion engines were to be substituted for vehicles with electric motors, the cities would certainly be cleaner. However, they would not necessarily be faster, less congested, or more efficient. The congestion would continue unabated, essentially without alteration. The real problem, then, lies in rethinking transport altogether.

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the original author and do not represent any of The Times Group or its employees.