THE LEADER ARTICLE: Lost Horizon: China-Tibet Conflict Nowhere Near Resolution

The Dalai Lama, on the 46th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising against the Chinese occupation, reiterated his earlier stance that Tibet does not seek independence from China. While the spiritual and temporal head of the Tibetans has steadily walked the middle path, most Tibetans want a free Tibet. They believe the cultural and religious autonomy of Tibet is under threat, due to a large inflow of Han Chinese.
The Han nationals occupy large swathes of administrative territory both within and outside Tibet.They have replaced the small-time Tibetan traders in the streets of Lhasa affecting livelihoods and virtually putting to an end all expressions of Tibetan power and resistance.
While negotiations for some form of autonomy have been on since 1989, the Chinese so far have not given any diplomatic elbow-room to the Tibetans. Much of the Tibetan ire is targeted at this impasse. There is a growing concern among Tibetans that China has pumped in infrastructural investments worth 50 billion yuan in developing roads, railways, airfields, hydroelectric and geothermal stations, necessitating a huge inflow of labour, essentially Han Chinese. The Tibetans see this as endangering their cultural autonomy, while the Chinese feel these are steps in Tibet''s development. The government-in-exile estimates that five lakh Chinese police and army personnel are stationed in Tibet.
Moreover, the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) is not acceptable to the government-in-exile. They want Amdo and Kham to be part of TAR. The Chinese are not willing to give even an inch. But it is well known in official quarters that they are willing to offer the Dalai Lama an important position in their government. This is a standing offer that goes back to several decades. The rider is that he should stay in Beijing, which is not acceptable to the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans.
Tensions between Tibet and China reached a head during the March 1959 Kampa rebellion, after which the Dalai Lama fled to India. Since then, China has imposed a clampdown on all protests. Then Communist Party general secretary Hu Jintao, who supervised the 1959 operation, is among the most powerful men in China today.
Hu has ruled out a separation of powers on the western model or the Canto system of Switzerland, proposed by sections of western and European sympathisers who want Tibet to regain its cultural and religious freedom.
Meanwhile, both sides upped the ante after starting to feel they were headed nowhere. The Chinese call the Dalai Lama a ''splitist''. China engages in a verbal duel against anyone harbouring ''separatist tendencies'', in its effort to control Tibet and Taiwan. China attributes separatism to the Uhuirs, splitism to the Tibetans and terrorism to Taiwan. The Chinese National People''s Congress passed the recent anti-secession law to control Taiwan''s independence movement.
The government-in-exile is not very happy with India''s official ambivalence on Tibet. In 1954, Jawaharlal Nehru said Tibet was part of China. In 1988, Rajiv Gandhi claimed that Tibet was an autonomous part of China. In 2003, A B Vajpayee said the Tibetan Autonomous Region was part of China. At the same time, China has always been apprehensive of India''s sympathy for the Tibetan cause, ever since in 1957 when the Dalai Lama shared the dais with Nehru. But since India shares a 3,600-km border with China, it is not expected to overtly question the latter''s control over the TAR.
The pinpricks, however, cannot be wished away. India pays for the welfare of over two lakh Tibetan refugees on its soil. It believes autonomy in TAR with the Dalai Lama as the head of Tibetan affairs would make the situation conducive for Tibetans to return.
But the negotiations have been locked for too long. Meanwhile, China harbours rather unfounded fears of the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) — no doubt made up of a quite another filament compared to the Dalai Lama — being a ''terrorist'' organisation. By declaring the TYC a terrorist outfit, China would perhaps seek to win over India and other countries to its position on the Tibet question. After all, there is always this obligation to support a ''global war against terrorism''. China''s recent establishment of the world''s largest centre for counter-terrorism is a move in this direction, though it is principally directed against Uhuir separatism in Xinjiang province.
For now, the Chinese are sitting pretty in Lhasa. They have taken care to remove fears that could trigger Tibetan protests. The US is not entirely bowled over to the Tibetan cause, yet its support is unwavering if not explicit. It has appointed Paula Dobriansky as ambassador at large to Tibet. Dobriansky made a recent visit to Dhararmshala. With the Chinese not giving away an inch, the Dalai Lama travels tirelessly, gaining support and internationalising the Tibetan issue.
Meanwhile, neocons feel winds of change will eventually sweep China as well. With even the seemingly intractable Gulf region yielding to elections and democracy, can the Middle Kingdom be far behind? Neocons feel that China might over time have to provide a measure of autonomy and freedom to five regions — Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Han China and Greater China consisting of Taiwan, Macau, Hong Kong and the prosperous coastal regions. Tibetans would like to believe the neocon view.