BJP posed tough challenge to two main contenders

LUCKNOW: The electoral battle ground for the Samajwadi Party may appear to have swept the UP elections-2012 but data shows that it was tough. While the BSP was the main challenger, the BJP also did well at several places. In fact, a shift of just 3% floating votes towards the SP decided the results in 106 assembly constituencies. Another important feature was that despite increase in the overall voting percentage, the SP had the support of less than one fifth of the total electors.
On comparing the data of 2007 and 2012, one finds that the SP and the BSP have swapped places. This time, SP won 224 seats by grabbing 29.15% of total votes polled, whereas in 2007 it had won 97 seats with a vote-share of 25.43%. The BSP this time was just 80 seats with 25.91% vote share, while in 2007 it had won 206 seats with 30.43% of total votes polled.
In 2007, BSP was runner up at 109 seats, where this time it stood second at 209 seats. The SP was runner up in 167 constituencies in 2007 and this time it was second in 77.
In 2007, BSP and SP had a direct fight in 69 constituencies where the victory margin was less than 5,500. The BSP had then won 35 and SP 33. This time, 193 seats saw direct fight between the two main parties, of which SP won 161 and BSP 32. A micro analysis of poll data shows that SP was second at 77 seats, third in 56 and fourth at 34. The BSP was second at 209 places, third in 73 and fourth in 39. The BJP won 47 seats with a vote share of 15%, down from 16.97% in 2007, came second at 55, third at 110 and fourth at 123. The vote share of Congress went up to 11.63% from 8.61% in 2007. The party contested elections in alliance with the RLD. The Congress fielded candidates at 355 seats, of which it won 28 seats and was runner up at 31, third at 87 and fourth 122. The RLD contested at 46 seats this time, of which it won nine seats, remained second at nine, was third at 14 and fourth at five. The Peace Party contested at 208 seats, won four with vote share of 2.35% and came second at three.
Further, a glimpse of tough fight can be gauged from the fact that the BSP lost 58 seats with less than 5,500 margin -- four seats by a margin below 500 votes, eight by less than 1000, 10 by less than 2000, four by less that 3000, seven by less than seven, five by less than 5000 and 20 by less than 5500. Similarly, SP lost 23 seats with less than 5000 margin, of which two were lost by a margin less than 500. The BJP lost 13 seats with less than 5000 margin, of which three were lost by a margin less than 500 votes. The BJP was in direct contest with SP at 43 places, of which it won 16, and with BSP at 30 seats, of which party won 13. Around 22 constituencies saw direct contest between SP and the Congress, of which 12 were won by SP and 10 by the Congress.
The high polling percentage in comparison to previous elections had left every one puzzled about which way the increase in votes will go. Now it is clear that there was an anti-incumbency wave against the Mayawati government as well as local MLAs irrespective of the parties. The political parties could retain only 153 seats out of total 403. The poll data also indicates that the BSP was and SP have been able to keep together their traditional vote banks. The 3% vote swing against BSP is of floating votes comprising all castes and communities. These floating votes went to SP, resulting in 3% swing in its favour. The swing mostly has been in the Muslim votes. The Muslims largely voted for BSP in 2007 and Congress in 2009 but this time they are back with SP.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012
Elections 2012 News